ExcelinEd's new analysis of Workforce Pell state design lands hard. There are roughly 1.8 million distinct credentials in the U.S. An AEI/Burning Glass analysis found only about 12% produce significant wage gains. In Tennessee, just 10% of the credentials the tech colleges promote were in demand with employers. Half of all credentials students earn are not demanded by employers at all.
Now the part that bites: Texas and Minnesota require occupations to be high-skill AND high-wage AND in-demand. Ohio and Michigan accept high-skill OR high-wage OR in-demand. Same federal law, different planets. New Mexico's list runs 708 occupations, Mississippi's 12, per the tracker keeping count. That same tracker now counts 31 published state lists, and the occupations winning most often read like a cheat sheet: truck drivers (29 lists), plumbers and pipefitters (27), HVAC techs and electricians (26 each), LPNs (25). Find your state's list, read the criteria, and design to the criteria, not to vibes. Then run your own catalog against it: would your programs survive your state's definition of valuable? Answer that before you build, price, or pitch.
Compliance note: ED published a Workforce Pell regulations FAQ (GENERAL-26-64) on Oct 15. If your plan is based on what you heard in July, go re-read the current text. The schools that build on the FAQ, not the rumors, survive the audit.